Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 1.832456 2.197325 2.607442 3.101292 3.678504 4.330414 5.121025
2026-01-11 1.363419 1.841316 2.436762 3.227805 4.245029 5.502398 7.166670
2026-01-18 1.033356 1.542623 2.234000 3.229365 4.611387 6.445796 9.044655
2026-01-25 0.781750 1.275649 1.998701 3.114725 4.769056 7.100456 10.595268
2026-02-01 0.604799 1.070083 1.799132 2.996235 4.875560 7.665101 12.054052
2026-02-08 0.497448 0.946504 1.694005 2.990096 5.128956 8.448734 13.892089
2026-02-15 0.417115 0.849283 1.610057 2.996529 5.390301 9.257582 15.835955
2026-02-22 0.347410 0.755170 1.512488 2.959437 5.565960 9.937047 17.629390
2026-03-01 0.277692 0.645159 1.365570 2.808583 5.519652 10.235814 18.815217
2026-03-08 0.234155 0.578360 1.287333 2.769438 5.660967 10.857865 20.593101
2026-03-15 0.200504 0.525207 1.226219 2.752030 5.835862 11.549160 22.545957
2026-03-22 0.187403 0.515956 1.253941 2.915332 6.373072 12.941451 25.868576
2026-03-29 0.168171 0.488710 1.240104 2.993857 6.759354 14.104109 28.901624
2026-04-05 0.154493 0.472496 1.248453 3.121551 7.261104 15.534676 32.565241
2026-04-12 0.134995 0.436317 1.203944 3.124683 7.501381 16.476462 35.371808
2026-04-19 0.112517 0.386090 1.116064 3.013915 7.480888 16.892187 37.179164
2026-04-26 0.093582 0.340990 1.032323 2.899062 7.434764 17.246288 38.886230
2026-05-03 0.082059 0.315538 0.995286 2.893150 7.634925 18.131011 41.746209
2026-05-10 0.072546 0.294004 0.964923 2.899408 7.863423 19.094834 44.845916
2026-05-17 0.062944 0.269415 0.921155 2.863413 7.984841 19.832816 47.520583
2026-05-24 0.051621 0.235078 0.841592 2.717016 7.813954 19.898413 48.737761
2026-05-31 0.044779 0.215418 0.802937 2.679031 7.913056 20.587986 51.386386
2026-06-07 0.039336 0.199559 0.773194 2.662140 8.064755 21.412457 54.400903